The following are links to Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave predictions and proclamations on the Stock Market for the last 25 years up to 2012. Articles dated for the years 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1997 have not been found. During the years of the Greatest Bull market in history Prechter appears to be all but absent in the media. If anyone finds these dated links in the Major Source Media, please send them to help fill in the gaps. Links to material referencing Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International and Elliott Wave Principle dated from 1979 onwards are also of interest. Elliott Wave tracking for 2013 continues on this page.
Apr. 27, 1987
The Sydney Morning Herald
And he is predicting that the market will rise in fits and starts until 1988, when the Dow will top out at 3686. He is precise about the figure – not about the timing. The Dow is now at 2235, so he is tipping a further 65 per cent increase in the Dow before it collapses.
May 11, 1987
Ace Analyst Robert Prechter Says When Skirts Rise, So Does the Stock Market-no Bull
Currently, Prechter sees a continuing bull (good) market for the rest of 1987, and while he has had his misses, his advice is so widely heeded that some claim his prophecies become self-fulfilling. “Bob’s the hottest analyst on Wall Street,” says Mark Hulbert, whose respected annual evaluation of 100 investment newsletters ranked Prechter the top forecaster of 1986.
The years have only deepened Prechter’s respect for his guru, whose work, he says, “will ultimately be seen as one of the biggest breakthroughs in sociology.” Still, some brokers, having witnessed other hot streaks, expect Prechter’s luck to run out.
September 3, 1987
Market Place; Is This a Pause In Bull Market?
Robert R. Prechter Jr. of Gainesville, Ga., regarded by many as the market’s leading technical guru, said in the Aug. 31 issue of his investment advisory letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, that “the stock market is likely ending a high-level correction in the 2,600-2,640 range, with new highs due in September.”
However, he added: “A break below 2,600 would make possible a drop back to the 2,300’s, which is the deepest selloff allowed at this point in the wave development.”
In an interview yesterday, Mr. Prechter stressed that his latest assessment actually represented “good news,” rather than any dire forecast. “It says that the maximum market risk is 200 to 300 points, while the upside potential is still greater than 1,000 points from here,” he explained. “This is merely an interruption of a major bull market, and my long-term target still calls for a top in the Dow between 3,600 and 3,700 next year.”
February 01, 1988
Prechter`s Elliott Wave Creating Waves 3,600 Dow Prediction Is Canceled
Speaking in rather veiled terms at an investment seminar at the Fort Lauderdale Marriott Hotel and Marina, Prechter managed to avoid the issue directly, though he did acknowledge that “the great bull market of the 1980s” ended in August.
Before the same group last year, Prechter had advised investors to jump into the stock market with both hands and feet until sometime in 1988, when the Dow would supposedly peak — at 3,686, to be exact. Once it reached that level, give or take a 100 points, the Dow would plunge and the United States would find itself with an economic catastrophe worse than the Great Depression.
The Dow did something else, however, peaking about 1,000 points lower than Prechter had predicted, at 2,722 in late August.
And then two months later, the Dow took an Acapulco cliff dive, plunging 508 points on Oct. 19 and ending the greatest bull market in history.
His long-term forecast was considerably off, but Prechter had better accuracy regarding what happened in October. The Oct. 5 edition of his Elliott Wave Theorist newsletter said the bull market “is coming ever closer to completion” and advised readers to sell all their stocks.
Then, on Oct. 16 — the Friday before Black Monday, when the Dow dropped more than 160 points — Prechter issued a special bulletin to his readers.
The bulletin warned them to sell all their stocks if the Dow reached the 2,100 level, which it did on Monday, Oct. 19. Those readers who subscribed to his telephone hot line service would have had access to the advice, but those who waited for their bulletin in the mail received it too late to act.
April 06, 1988
Market Bears Prechter Out Leading Analyst Predicts A Down Wave For Market
Prechter’s prediction of Oct. 19’s stock market crash is open to praise as well as criticism. On Oct. 5, Prechter advised his newsletter subscribers to sell all their stocks and invest in cash-equivalent investments, such as money-market funds.
On Oct. 15, he changed his mind. In a special bulletin subscribers received Black Monday, Prechter suggested that they resume buying stocks but to sell those stocks if the Dow Jones industrial average fell to 2,170. (Prechter recommends using stop-losses, orders to sell stocks if prices drop to a certain level. The Dow closed at 2,413 Oct. 14 and at 2,355 Oct. 15.)
Most investors, fortunately, had little, if any, time to act on Prechter’s advice because of the rapid descent of stock prices. On Black Monday, the Dow, a familiar measure of stock prices, plunged an unprecedented 508 points to 1,739.
In 1978, Prechter predicted that the bull market of the 1980s would peak when the Dow hit the upper 2000s. He later changed that forecast by predicting that the bull market would peak in 1988, when the Dow surpassed 3,600. The Dow peaked at 2,722 Aug. 25.
February 06, 1989
Theorists Split On Elliott Wave
Now, more than a year after the 1987 crash, Mr. Frost and Mr. Prechter find themselves in sharp disagreement as to where the market is heading. Mr. Frost thinks the Dow is likely to rise above 3,000 this year, and only then begin to fall sharply. Mr. Prechter has been resolutely bearish.
Mr. Prechter noted that the two men had disagreed before, including a period in 1980 when Mr. Frost had correctly concluded the market had bottomed in April while Mr. Prechter disagreed. “It was June or July before I realized he was correct,” Mr. Prechter said.
November 11, 1990
Enduring, Not Always Endearing ‘Wall Street Week’
Though many guests have great fun, appearing on the program is not always an experience you would like your mother to see. Some individuals wobble out of the studio feeling as if they had been caught in a cement mixer. Letters to the program make it clear that many viewers own no stocks but tune in for what can seem like a financial version of professional wrestling.
FOR instance, Robert Prechter, editor of the Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly market newsletter, has been on several times and, during his last appearance in 1988, got put in some pretty painful holds. “He came on lying,” Mr. Rukeyser says. “He just denied the things he had said. And we had to point it out. He misunderstood and thought the program was for his own glorification.”
“That’s just the typical Rukeyser pathology,” Mr. Prechter shoots back. “He would rather use the big lie story than admit a mistake. Rukeyser keeps claiming he represents the little guy and he’s right. But the little guy is himself.”
June 6, 1992
Predicting the Market By Spread Named Ted
Mr. Prechter, writing in his Global Market Perspective, calls the spread “one of the best measures of overall fear versus complacency among investors.”
Mr. Prechter, who has been bearish on the stock market for quite a while, cites the record-low absolute level of the spread as another piece of evidence that a bad patch is just around the corner.
Dec. 12, 1993 (payment required to view article from Fresnobee.com)
The Dick Davis Digest reports “Robert Prechter, editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist, believes we are at the end of a 300-plus year upmove. He foresees a 90 percent – that’s no misprint – plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average.”
Nov. 18, 1996
BRACING FOR A MARKET APOCALYPSE
DOOMSDAY IS UPON US. So says market prognosticator Robert Prechter, who became a Wall Street celebrity by accurately forecasting the 1982-87 bull market. In his monthly newsletter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, he predicts that the market will plummet more than 50% over the next two years, followed by a 1930s-style depression.
April 6, 1998
The rally through the 8600s confirmed that the Dow, like the S&P, has been in wave (5) since January. Many indexes are completing five waves up from as far back as 1994. Eight different Fibonacci time spans point to March 23-April 3 as a window of opportunity for a top, possibly the top. Time cycles are bullish, but the conflict is easily resolved. If the market holds up after April 10, odds of a commodity-type blowoff in the Dow will increase, with July-August the next time target.
July 28, 1999
Sector funds worth the loads? Or a ‘spectator sport’?
Other market-timing gurus think they can predict the market many years into the future. Robert Prechter, head of Elliott Wave International and the mother of all superbears, wrote a book five years ago called “At the Crest of the Tidal Wave,” predicting a major market and economic collapse into a 100-year bear market.The Dow was at 4000 at the time. He thought it would drop to 400. Needless to say, he missed the bull market as it started toward today’s 11,000 level.
Oct. 16, 2000
The Wheelers, The Wavers, And The Star-Struck In an economy that seemingly defies explanation, is it any wonder that people turn to wave theory, the number 1.618, and–yes!–the stars for guidance?
Most people haven’t heard about this brand of voodoo since Robert Prechter, high priest of the Elliott wave, was lionized for calling the stock run-up that began in 1982 and the crash of 1987. Since then his big-picture forecasts have been laughably terrible, with global economic depression continually just around the corner and the Dow headed below 1000. His famous newsletter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, recently gave up financial forecasting in favor of broader societal issues, for which the outlook is also very grave but at least not subject to embarrassing comparisons with index numbers. (He does still venture market calls in a smaller, niche publication.) (No calls for a market top in 2000 by Prechter?)
Dec. 2, 2001
Investing; A Siren Song Sounds Again From Wall St.
In a regular survey by the American Association of Individual Investors, bullishness topped 60 percent in October — the first such reading since the market’s interim peak in May. Although the measurement has since declined, that high reading was significant, said Robert Prechter, editor of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast newsletter, because a 60 percent reading had been recorded only three times before December 1999. There have been 12 such readings since, however, during what has proved to be an awful time to be in stocks. The association surveys a broad range of small investors.
“The latest episode is unlikely to work out much better than the other 11, which were followed by heavy selling,” Mr. Prechter said.
Aug. 26, 2002
Elliott Wave Wipeout
Now for the first time since the topping process started four years ago in April 1998, I think we have the bear market in gear on the downside in all indexes and averages.
This one-month rally that we’ve been in is highly significant on one level: Because it’s offering people who’ve been delaying and putting off the opportunity to get out one last chance to do so. I think we’re near the end of this rally. It’s already been 17% or so in several averages. It’s a fantastic opportunity for the people who were crying in July they just wished that they had sold out. They need to reorient and get out. Use this opportunity to sell stocks and keep your powder dry for perhaps the greatest buying opportunity in your lifetime, which is coming up in a matter of a few short years.
Oct. 17, 2002
As stocks rally, Dow 4,000 is imminent
The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average will lose half its value in the next six months to about 4,000 on the blue-chip index, says Prechter. When it’s all over several years from now, the Dow will trade below 1,000 , Prechter says.
In a just-issued “Interim Report” of his big-think, no-portfolio Elliott Wave Theorist service, he says:
“Understand that I am not nervously bearish or on the fence. I am all-out, no-holds-barred, shout-from-the-rooftops, yet-another-opportunity-of-a-lifetime bearish. Wave patterns, cycles and technical indicators have developed into an astonishingly one-sided message…
“After this bear market is finally over, almost no one will remember the Pollyanna psychology that existed in the summer of 2000, the spring of 2002, the spring of 2002, or the fall of 2003. The S&P and Nasdaq will look like one big slide with a few rallies along the way, and historians will probably not even imagine that investors could have been stark raving bullish during any one of them.”
“Three hundred years of stock market data show nothing else like it. Extreme technical conditions that used to be reconciled in weeks have taken months, and those that used to take months have taken years.”
Something of the same is presumably going on with Prechter’s gold thinking. He’s long argued, breaking with his former gold bug allies, that gold is still in a primary bear market.
Jan. 5, 2004
Elliott Wavers’ bearish view on gold
“Every major market we cover is poised for a long-term trend change,” Hochberg and Kendall say flatly.
The means, stocks: down; Treasury notes: down, albeit maybe after a bounce; U.S. dollar: forming a bottom, with multi-month rally about to start; and gold and silver: “at the end of their rallies.”
Nov. 16, 2004
Yogi Berra on Dent vs. Prechter
Dow 40,000? Dow 400? Best strategy is asset allocation
“What’s the vote, who won?” That question came up several times in the 156 e-mails we received after our recent “contest” pitting superoptimist Harry Dent and his “Dow 40,000 by 2009” forecast against doomsday-pessimist Robert Prechter’s “100-year bear market with the Dow crashing to 400.”
Dent and Prechter are two well-known and controversial experts. Both have been around for many years. Both make a good living selling their prognostications to the investing public or they wouldn’t still be in business.
But a choice between two extremes? Dow 40,000 or Dow 400? That’s absurd.
There’s a big lesson here: Forecasting is not a science — it’s entertainment. It’s more about selling books, newsletters and investment information, and this contest proves it.
The good news is that 54 percent of the respondents (“realists” they called themselves) dismissed both forecasts as “worthless,” calling the forecasters “nuts,” “delusional” or worse. The bad news is that the other 46 percent actually liked some of what either Dent or Prechter said, with 27 percent voting as Dent-optimists and 19 percent as Prechter-pessimists.
October 1, 2005
Gold’s Running but Is It Worth Chasing After?
Its own popularity may be a greater impediment to further progress. Robert R. Prechter Jr., president of the investment advisory service Elliott Wave International, pointed to data showing record speculation in gold futures and near record short selling by the mining industry and other commercial interests that have displayed an uncanny knack for timing the market accurately.
“Good buying opportunities occur in times of pessimism,” Mr. Prechter said. “The best time to buy gold is when few care about it.”
Oct. 20, 2005
Elliott Wave’s Prechter sounds the alarm
“The wave two bound in the Dow ended four trading hours ago. Wave three down is beginning. Expect the market to develop into a crash, with panic increasing into Halloweeen and then culminating within hours. From that low, the market should stage a dramatic three-day bounce for wave four and then resume declining to lower lows for wave five. This decline should leave 10,000 behind for good. Investors stay in cash; speculators stay short. Gold and silver are reversing downward and will not provide sanctuary from crash.”
Unquestionably, this is because by the Hulbert Financial Digest’s count, the EWFF’s trader’s portfolio has endured a staggering annualized loss of 18.1% over the 20 years through September. (EWFF split off in 1999 from Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist, which no longer offers specific portfolio advice. But the two seem to work in tandem.)
May 22, 2006
Commodity Selloff Prompts Consensus for Bulls, Bears
The commodities markets are “extremely overvalued and very vulnerable to a substantial drop,” said Robert Prechter, chief executive officer and president of Elliott Wave International Inc. in Gainesville, Georgia, a firm that makes forecasts based on price charts.
While Prechter in 1998 predicted a stock market crash that never occurred, he was named “the champion market forecaster” by Fortune magazine and the “Guru of the Decade” in 1989 by Financial News Network, now CNBC. He predicted the 1980s bull market with a September 1982 call that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would jump to five times its August 1982 level.
Oct. 19, 2007
Let’s review what we learned from ’87 Crash
Robert Prechter, perhaps the most celebrated timer to pull his money out of stocks before the 1987 crash, thought the market would be ugly but not that ugly. “No one predicted a crash, including me,” says Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International. He was expecting merely a correction. (No market top and crash call in 2007 either by Prechter?).
Oct. 19, 2007
20 years later, could markets crash again?
…most Wall Street experts stress that crashes are low-probability events.
(Interesting reading – with no one calling the stock market top in 2007)
Oct. 28, 2008.
Have investors panicked and capitulated?
Is it time to buy stock? Ever since mid-September, we have read that the bottom is in because investors have “panicked” and “capitulated.” But market history does not support this widespread view.
February 24, 2009
Prechter Advises Closing Short Positions on Stocks
He warned of a sharp and scary rebound for anyone still wagering on a retreat, according to this month’s Elliott Wave Theorist.
October 5, 2009
Prechter Says Stocks Are Poised for Major Decline
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will probably fall substantially below 676.53, the 12-year low reached on March 9, he said. The measure surged as much as 58 percent to 1,071.66 in the ensuing seven months on signs the recession is ending. His projection implies a drop of more than 34 percent from last week’s close.
Prechter’s forecasts have had mixed results. While the former rock-and-roll drummer achieved fame for predicting a stock market crash two weeks before Black Monday in 1987, his standing suffered in the 1990s because he missed the almost decade-long bull market. In December 2002, he said the Dow Jones Industrial Average would fall below 1,000. It hasn’t dipped below 6,000 since then, climbing 25 percent in 2003 and then another 35 percent through Oct. 9, 2007.
Nov. 25, 2009
Short term vs. long-term
Robert Prechter on Monday moved to 200% short
No wonder, therefore, that their newsletter has one of the best stock market timing records over the last two years of any that the Hulbert Financial Digest monitors.
On the other hand, Prechter’s longer-term record couldn’t be more different. The last time that his newsletter recommended that traders be long stocks was in 1997, some 12 years ago. In fact, during the bull market of the 1990s, traders following his advice spent most of the time short the market or in cash.
This helps to explain why the newsletter’s timing advice for traders is in last place for performance over the last 20 years among all stock market timing strategies tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.
Nov. 30, 2009
Riding the Waves of Irrational Behavior
Prechter, a soft-spoken, thoughtful, engaging 60-year-old, believes that the bull market of the past eight months that pushed the Dow past 10,000 will inevitably give way to a crash that will drag prices well below the level of early March.
Prechter readily admits that he’s far from infallible. The standard he says he wants to be held to is similar to that of a hitter in baseball, in which batting .300 makes one a star and .400 an immortal. He has concluded that time is a “quite elastic” variable when it comes to Elliott’s waves.
In other words, he’s wrong a lot. But so are conventional economic forecasters, especially at the market turning points that can have the biggest impact on investors’ portfolios.
Aug 25, 2010
Robert Prechter Goes All In and I’m Right Behind Him
The original version of the book called for the impulse portion (five advancing waves) of the three largest cycles to end in the late 1980s, but when the market recovered from 1987, an alternate count was introduced in 1995, which included a revision stating that the Grand Super Cycle was likely the largest pattern in the confluence of terminating impulse waves, and it was likely to peak that year. Well, that didn’t happen, and Prechter called the top again for 1996, and then in 1996 revised it to 2000.
You can imagine the fun critics of the Elliott wave principle had with all the bad calls. Prechter’s days as a market caller, as far as the general population and critics were concerned, were over.
However, a funny thing happened; all those Whos down in Whoville kept singing. Prechter’s personal newsletter and publishing house, Elliott Wave International (abbreviated EWI), continued to do well through the 1990s right up through today. In a mostly cottage industry where individuals or a handful of employees run market newsletters, Elliott Wave International has 90 employees. While EWI won’t reveal its actual number of subscribers, it will say it has subscribers in more than 100 countries.
The bottom line is that serious Elliott wave watchers, though disappointed, weren’t dissuaded by the failed projections in the 1990s. Although the five-wave impulse portion of these large-degree cycles extended beyond the ideal Fibonacci targets based on the historical norms of smaller wave sets, the failures were within the rules and guidelines of the wave principle and continued to adhere to Fibonacci proportion.
I think it’s more illuminating to ask a question. What impact do the failed projections in the 1990s have on the current interpretation of these large Elliott wave cycles today? The answer is very intriguing. Remember how I explained that sometimes an Elliott wave interpretation can be fine-tuned to one theoretical outcome, or several outcomes that point in the same direction? Well, the answer to my question is that theoretically there are absolutely no Elliott wave options left for price to go higher than the 2007 high at every Elliott cycle level of degree from Grand Super Cycle (1784) to Cycle (1974) without experiencing a decline in magnitude described by Robert Prechter in the New York Times interview.
In other words, Robert Prechter’s lifelong pursuit to prove the validity of the Elliott wave principle is all in, right here, right now.
November 09, 2010
It’s Official: Robert Prechter Has Gotten This Market 100% Wrong
Folks familiar with his market analysis will not be surprised by his call: Go long the dollar, go short gold, and go short stocks.
You really couldn’t be in a worse position in this market. If you’d have followed him into that trade, you would be getting killed right now.
Time to Slip into Something Less Comfortable?
One of the most famous of these extremist outsiders is Robert Prechter. In the 1970s he revived an old system of measuring investor psychology called the Elliott Wave Principle and used it to advise subscribers of his investment newsletter on Oct. 5, 1987, that they liquidate their stock holdings. Two weeks later, the market crashed. Prechter was hailed as a genius—though the label didn’t stick. In 1993, The Wall Street Journal ran a page-one story headlined “Robert Prechter Sees His 3600 on the Dow—But 6 Years Late.” He stayed pessimistic through the 1990s, and in 2002 said the Dow Jones industrial average would fall below 1000. It surged 25 percent the following year and kept going up until 2007.
According to Prechter, 61, the market’s failure to crash as he predicted only set it up for more devastating blows down the road—which could be right now. Last March he correctly called the market bottom and predicted a rally. That has now run its course. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, he says, will dip below its March 2009 low. “From a peak in 2010, the stock market should fall for six years,” he says.
July 3, 2010
A Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’
Mr. Prechter is convinced that we have entered a market decline of staggering proportions — perhaps the biggest of the last 300 years.
Buy-and-hold stock investors will be devastated in a crash much worse than the declines of 2008 and early 2009 or the worst years of the Great Depression or the Panic of 1873, he predicted.
Aug. 6, 2010
Top Five Financial Pornographers
Aug 10, 2011
U.S. Stocks Are in Bear-Market Rally, Prechter Says: Tom Keene
The advance for U.S. stocks since a 12-year low in March 2009 has been a bear-market rally as the economic recovery has faltered, according to Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave International Inc.
Prechter is famed for predicting the stock market crash of 1987 via a system of measuring investor psychology known as the Elliott Wave Principle, though his forecasts have had mixed results. His standing suffered in the 1990s when he missed the almost decade-long bull market. In December 2002, he said the Dow Jones Industrial Average would fall below 1,000. It hasn’t dipped below 6,500 since then, climbing 25 percent in 2003 and another 35 percent through Oct. 9, 2007.
Nov. 10, 2011
Robert Prechter: 100-Year Bear?
We evaluate here the stock market forecasts of Robert Prechter, mostly since April 2002. Evaluated predictions come indirectly via MarketWatch columns, which have tracked his commentary only occasionally in recent years. Guru Accuracy Rating 23%. This is below average. Current guru average is 48%.
Feb. 27, 2012
3 doomsaying experts who foresee economic devastation ahead
Harry Dent, author of the new book The Great Crash Ahead, says another stock market crash is coming due to a bad ending to the global debt bubble. He has pulled back on his earlier prediction of a crash in 2012, as central banks around the world have been flooding markets with money, giving stocks an artificial short-term boost. But a crash is coming in 2013 or 2014, he warns. “This will be a repeat of 2008-09, only bigger, when it finally hits,” Dent told USA TODAY.
Robert Prechter, author of Conquer the Crash, first published in 2002 and updated in 2009, is still bearish. He says today’s economy has similarities to the Great Depression and warns that 1930s-style deflation is still poised to cause financial havoc. Prechter predicts that the major U.S. stock indexes, such as the Dow Jones industrials and Standard & Poor’s 500, will plunge below their bear market lows hit in March 2009 during the last financial crisis. The brief recovery will fail as it did in the 1930s, he says. (2002, 2009 bottom of stock market)
June 28, 2012.
Stock Market Drop Will Weaken Obama Re-Election Odds: Prechter
“Social mood is behind both of these,” says Prechter. “It changes people’s perception of how the president is doing, and it also changes traders’ decisions about whether to buy or sell.”
Prechter’s work shows stock market performance tightly correlated with election results for more than 100 years.
Over the last one, two, and three years the stock market is higher, suggesting a win for Obama—but only if the election were held today. Prechter sees the market fading into the end of the year, with Obama’s poll numbers going right along with it. Again, it’s all about the mood.